Microsoft has decided to drop the ads with Jerry Seinfeld. Personally, I think this is a big mistake - it looks like the company is messing up the biggest-spending campaign most people have heard of, and that’s going to confirm many people’s impressions that the company are just not getting it right these days. Yes, the adverts were a bit kooky, and Seth Godin may have a point that there is something a little bit fake about it all.

For more than twenty years, Microsoft has relentlessly commodified itself and the software it makes. It has worked to become a monopoly, a semi-faceless organization that cranks out very good (or pretty good) software that gets a job done for the middle of the market. It’s been a profitable strategy. But now they have Apple envy.

But from my point of view, Microsoft had made a good start to a difficult but limited job. Basically, they needed to show the benefits of ubiquity and affordability, i.e. that they had brought computing and communication between computers to huge numbers of ordinary folk. At the same time they needed to defuse Apple’s advertising message without giving Apple more ammunition. I thought they put across the message in a funny and oblique way, even if it was not hugely accessible. They just needed to move it a little further to show that they have done a pretty good job that no-one else could have done, and they will carry on doing a good job for ordinary folks.

Instead they decided to go head-to-head with Apple, which always looked like a no-no to me. It sends the wrong message: That Apple are setting the agenda and Microsoft doesn’t like it. The new ad is trying to imply that Apple ads are disrespectful to the people that use Microsoft. But by doing so, they’ve put the ball in Apple’s court and, on past evidence, I doubt Apple will waste their chance.

I can imagine the Apple guy in the guise of the therapist, for example. A user worries, ‘My friends think I bought my Mac to look cool, but I just wanted a computer I could use without having to call the helpline all the time’. The response could remind them the user that ‘Apple just doesn’t see why you have to do it all the hard way. That’s why we introduced the desktop and mouse to personal computing all those years ago - which everyone else copied. Anyway, why shouldn’t you enjoy looking at your computer? It’s a great machine. It should look good.’ OK, I’m not an ad copywriter, but you get the idea. Apple can just tone down the cool, emphasize reliability and that they see the user as a friend. They’ve done it before, and it worked. Now’s they’ve got the chance to do it all over again.

The many reactions to the new Microsoft ad with Bill Gates and Jerry Seinfeld are mostly pretty negative. Some also remark on the other hand that the number of reactions is itself a good thing, especially as a series starts. The fact that the whole campaign is to cost $300 milllion is pretty much guaranteed to make everyone talk, anyway, so maybe that strategy pays for itself!

Add the fact that it is for Microsoft, one of the biggest brand challenges there is, and it’s interesting to speculate where the campaign will go. At least for PR companies like us it’s a useful exercise, too. David Webster, general manager of brand and marketing strategy at Microsoft, outlines the plan:

‘Windows is a product that’s been around for a long time,’ said David Webster. ‘It’s well-known and part of people’s everyday lives. What people don’t know is that Windows has kept pace with the changes in people’s lives today. We thought it was a good time to catch people up with what windows was doing.’

But that last sentence hides a mammoth task — defusing the hostility surrounding MS, establishing some degree of warmth and trust so they will listen, and then presenting the benefits. I don’t believe what commentators say about this being primarily an attempt to rehabilitate Vista, but about rebuilding the brand. Sure, revenues and users are being lost. But the bigger problem is loss of confidence in MS, and though helping Vista’s image will restore confidence, it is not enough, and it is too risky to put it all on one product, no matter how central.

So, taking the hint from Webster, I predict the campaign will point out the positives from the company history and culture, showing how they’ve helped users, getting ‘a PC in every home’ and taking some of the sting out of the bad publicity of Vista. Then they’ll turn to the vision. And even though Webster says they won’t go head-to-head with Apple — which Apple would love — they will be consciously trying to undermine their message of ‘cool guy vs. clueless control freak’, while denying Apple any obvious ammunition. I think the first ad points to how they’ll do that already — showing how ordinary they are. They’ll pitch Apple, by implication, as the computer for the elitist, while the PC, enabled by Microsoft, was the affordable, beige, ‘computer for the rest of us’, that just got on with the job without trying to be creative or win prizes. Perfect for doing the everyday stuff like writing letters and doing the tax returns. The point gained, that’s when we’ll hear just how much Microsoft has done, is doing, will do for the ordinary guy.

So, let’s see how it might execute:

Episode 1: The Teaser

So far it goes - Jerry Seinfeld, the star of a witty sitcom that is purely observational, inconsequential comedy, walks past the Circus Shoe store, spots Bill Gates trying on discount shoes, walks in, and the two have an inconsequential conversation. At one point, Bill Gates shows Jerry his Circus Shoes Clown card. ‘Platinum’, he says, at the same time coy and proud. It’s a sight gag, which no-one seems to have really picked on. Gates is a clown. He’s awkward, he’s nerdy. And he’s a genius. You can’t help having some sympathy. ‘Bill’s just like the rest of us. Give the guy, and his company, a chance. They’re trying.’

Future episodes: Bill and Jerry get talking

Jerry gets really interested, and keeps the conversation going with lots of quirky, non-threatening remarks.

Predicted storyline: They’ll go to a cafe. Maybe a funfair or circus, where Bill’s Platinum Member Circus Shoes Clown card will come in handy. At some point Jerry will see the HQ and get the history. And meet lots of other Microsoft folks (Bill is not going to keep the audience engaged through a whole series). Jerry will then get a privileged look into ‘Bill’s World’ - not the luxury version of one of the world’s wealthiest men, but the geek version with the future vision. He’ll see how in the past, that vision meant offering great value and bringing computing to regular folks, enabling the ‘PC in every home’ and the Internet revolution. And then Jerry’ll see all the stuff you can already do with Microsoft (Vista and Silverlight will be key), but don’t know it. Jerry will be like a kid in a toy factory, and will ask funny questions that give Bill a chance to correct misunderstandings about Microsoft. Then there’ll be the vision of the future.

Final episode: Weird, funny, unforgettable

The last episode will be completely tangential to the rest and is there to create buzz, memorability and maybe even a catchphrase.

My predicted messages:

‘Bill Gates and Microsoft, they’re kind of out of fashion. But remember, they’ve done a lot for us. And they’ll do a lot more for us in the future.’

‘A lot of people hate MS because it’s the biggest and most successful computer company of all time. But that hurts our feelings - we only got to be the biggest by making the most popular software of all time. We can’t help it if people want to buy our stuff!’

‘Microsoft loves the fact that there are so many new Internet companies doing browsers and email and search and who knows what else. We invented a lot of that stuff - and we’re going to invent a whole lot more. But of course we’re more than an Internet company.’

‘So Vista has been misunderstood, and hasn’t worked with all your old stuff first time. But it’s new, and takes some getting used to. There are lots of great things it can do, and it will run great on the new PC you’re thinking of buying.’ Some of the Mojave stuff may sneak in here, but not enough to give Apple ammunition.

‘Anyway, there’s a lot more to Microsoft than Vista. Ever heard of Microsoft Word? How many people do you know that use anything else? Even on the Mac you used in your show. And look at all the other stuff we’ve given you over the years.’

‘Just look at what you can do on XBox3! Look what Silverlight can do for you! And Windows Mobile!! (And, and…)’ At some point Jerry will have to get Bill or whoever it is to calm down so the enthusiasm doesn’t endanger their health.

‘We’ve done so much, but there’s so much more for us to do. So many cool things that no-one else is going to do for you. We thought of it all because we’re nerdy. And if you find that funny, we’re cool with you laughing at us. ‘

Will it work?

This could be perfect timing - Vista has made a humbler more human Microsoft appear credible, and Google has shown that real competition exists. Given the budget, I actually think this could work. The acid test for me will be whether Apple’s ads, which must get under Microsoft’s skin like nothing else, are made to appear snobbish and spiteful rather than witty and creative. That would really be a success. Despite being mostly a Mac user, I wish the campaign well.